1. Edward Snowden could remain in Hong Kong for years, legal experts say
2. Edward Snowden could remain in Hong Kong for years, legal experts say

Treaty guarantees that those returned under its provisions will not face trial based on evidence obtained by torture

The Jordanian parliament has passed a treaty with Britain that paves the way for the final deportation of the radical cleric, Abu Qatada, the Home Office has confirmed.

The lower house of the Jordanian parliament approved the "fair trial" treaty last week and it went through the senate, or upper house, on Tuesday.

The treaty only remains to be formally approved by Jordan's King Abdullah and published in the Jordanian official gazette. It is expected be ratified by the British parliament by next Friday, unless there is a last-minute call for a vote.

The completion of the formalities on the treaty, which includes guarantees that those returned under its provisions will not face a trial based on evidence obtained by torture, will finally clear the way for Abu Qatada to be put on a plane to Amman, possibly within weeks.

A Home Office spokesperson said: "The government remains committed to securing Qatada's deportation as quickly as possible. We are pleased the Jordanian parliament has approved the treaty and we await its full ratification by the Jordanian government and the completion of ratification procedures in the UK."

The cleric informed the home secretary, Theresa May, last month that he was willing to return voluntarily to Jordan once the "fair trial" treaty had been put in place. May has yet to decide whether a fresh deportation order will be needed once the treaty takes effect to put the cleric on a plane. Theoretically the cleric could launch a further judicial appeal but that would mean going back on his undertaking to return.

Abu Qatada has been repeatedly detained in Britain as an international terror suspect over the past 12 years. British judges say the cleric, who was a key figure in al-Qaida-linked activities in the UK, remains a threat to national security with a wide support network. He is currently held in Belmarsh high-security prison. One his return to Jordan he will face terror charges relating to bomb attacks in the late 1990s. He had been tried and convicted on these charges in absentia.

The European court of human rights and senior British judges have both ruled that it would amount to a "flagrant denial of justice'' if Qatada had been returned to Jordan without assurances that he would not face a trial based on evidence obtained by torture.

The Jordan Times reported that the treaty on mutual legal assistance on criminal matters between Jordan and the UK was approved by the lower house of parliament last Tuesday.

Several leading MPs called for its rejection but it was passed after the Jordanian prime minister, Abdullah Ensour, stressed that it would also allow Jordan to bring back "certain public figures suspected of corruption" who are now living in Britain.

Two leading MPs criticised as "shameful" a reference in the preface to the treaty to relations between the UK and Jordan as "historical". One MP pointed out that Britain had been the occupying colonial power in Jordan for a long time.

Qatada's lawyers told a bail hearing in London last month that the treaty meant that for the first time in 12 years he felt safe in returning to Jordan: "It substantially raises the prospect of acquittal in what we say are tainted charges," said his lawyer.

They added that Qatada had "been deprived of his liberty more than any other non-convicted person in British history".

1. Ex-Israeli envoy to Amman urges immediate export of gas to Jordan

Whistleblower could make case for rejecting US application for his return on grounds that alleged offence was political

Edward Snowden could remain in Hong Kong for months or years if he chooses to fight any request for his return to the United States and if he asks for asylum, experts said.

Lawyers said the NSA whistleblower could make a credible case for rejecting a US application for his return, on the grounds that his alleged offence was political, but queried his prospects of ultimate success.

If the US decides to bring criminal charges and requests his surrender – technically not extradition, because Hong Kong is not a sovereign state – he might be able to argue that he should be exempt under the treaty's political exception provisions.

There is no set definition of a political offence: it is at the discretion of the state that receives the request. Both the intent of the authority making the request and the motivation of the alleged offender are considered.

Tim Parker, an immigration lawyer in the territory, said the chief executive of Hong Kong – which is part of China but enjoys considerable autonomy under the "one country, two systems" framework – would decide on the US request. But Snowden would then be able to challenge the decision through the courts.

"In controversial political cases it would likely go to the court of appeal and ultimately the court of final appeal," he said.

The process "could go on for months and easily into years".

Hong Kong has not accepted a political defence against extradition since the handover in 1997. In the 1930s it turned down a bid by French authorities for Ho Chi Minh's return to what was then IndoChina, in a case that went all the way to the privy council. More recently, in 1994, its courts stayed the extradition of the politician Jeffrey Kitigan to Malaysia.

Guy Goodwin-Gill QC, a leading expert on extradition at Blackstone Chambers in London, noted that the international climate had changed, with offences that previously might have qualified – such as hijacking – no longer accepted as political.

"The times are very much one of co-operation across a broad range of activities. You hardly ever find a state refusing extradition for political offences any longer," he said.

In the case of Snowden, "you certainly see political dimensions: you have members of the US senate or House of Representatives calling him a traitor – so they are building a very good case for another state to treat this as political," added Goodwin-Gill.

"Academically, you can certainly build a case for a political offence. Whether it would be sufficient to persuade the requested state is another matter."

Another international expert on extradition said courts have in general considered political offences to be those committed as an incidental part of a broader political power struggle between a defined movement or party of which the defendant is a member, and the established government.

Snowden might be also able to fight his surrender on the grounds he would face cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment if he were returned.

But if the US provided assurances that he would not be treated in such a manner, it might be hard for Hong Kong to resist, Patricia Ho, a Hong Kong lawyer who specialises in asylum and refugee claims, told Associated Press.

The UN special rapporteur on torture has formally accused the US government of cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment towards Bradley Manning, the US soldier currently on trial for leaking classified material to WikiLeaks. But the US might well argue that Snowden's treatment in the civilian system could not be compared to military detention.

Simon Young, the director of the centre for comparative and public law at the University of Hong Kong, noted that approval for surrender can only be made if there is an assurance that the death penalty will not be used.

Young added that a request would also be trumped by asylum proceedings. If Snowden applied for resettlement to a third country - Hong Kong does not grant asylum itself - that issue would have to be settled first. A legal ruling this spring has left the territory without a mechanism for handling such claims; it could take months for a system to be introduced.

Technically, the fugitive offenders ordinance would allow Beijing to step in after Hong Kong had decided whether to surrender Snowden. But it has not used these powers in the past and to intervene publicly would cause a storm.

Diplomatic discussions behind the scenes can prove as crucial as what happens in courts. Goodwin-Gill noted that a state may not ask for a suspect's extradition if it thinks its request will be rejected.

In the long run, suggested some experts, Snowden might stand a better chance of avoiding proceedings by going to a country that does not have an extradition agreement with the US. With no criminal proceedings yet under way there is, in theory, nothing to stop him simply boarding a flight to a new destination. But given his views on constraining state power and controlling surveillance, nearby options such as China, Vietnam or Laos would be bizarre choices – even if they let him in.

Jonathan Acton-Bond, a lawyer who has dealt with high-profile extradition cases in Hong Kong, told Reuters that Snowden might also face obstacles in leaving. "In strictly legal terms he's free to go, but government bodies can always find an excuse to temporise, or stop him," he said.

1. Edward Snowden could remain in Hong Kong for years, legal experts say
2. Snowden goes to ground in Hong Kong as US vows chase

Whistleblower could make case for rejecting US application for his return on grounds that alleged offence was political

Edward Snowden could remain in Hong Kong for months or years if he chooses to fight any request for his return to the United States and if he asks for asylum, experts said.

Lawyers said the NSA whistleblower could make a credible case for rejecting a US application for his return, on the grounds that his alleged offence was political, but queried his prospects of ultimate success.

If the US decides to bring criminal charges and requests his surrender – technically not extradition, because Hong Kong is not a sovereign state – he might be able to argue that he should be exempt under the treaty's political exception provisions.

There is no set definition of a political offence: it is at the discretion of the state that receives the request. Both the intent of the authority making the request and the motivation of the alleged offender are considered.

Tim Parker, an immigration lawyer in the territory, said the chief executive of Hong Kong – which is part of China but enjoys considerable autonomy under the "one country, two systems" framework – would decide on the US request. But Snowden would then be able to challenge the decision through the courts.

"In controversial political cases it would likely go to the court of appeal and ultimately the court of final appeal," he said.

The process "could go on for months and easily into years".

Hong Kong has not accepted a political defence against extradition since the handover in 1997. In the 1930s it turned down a bid by French authorities for Ho Chi Minh's return to what was then IndoChina, in a case that went all the way to the privy council. More recently, in 1994, its courts stayed the extradition of the politician Jeffrey Kitigan to Malaysia.

Guy Goodwin-Gill QC, a leading expert on extradition at Blackstone Chambers in London, noted that the international climate had changed, with offences that previously might have qualified – such as hijacking – no longer accepted as political.

"The times are very much one of co-operation across a broad range of activities. You hardly ever find a state refusing extradition for political offences any longer," he said.

In the case of Snowden, "you certainly see political dimensions: you have members of the US senate or House of Representatives calling him a traitor – so they are building a very good case for another state to treat this as political," added Goodwin-Gill.

"Academically, you can certainly build a case for a political offence. Whether it would be sufficient to persuade the requested state is another matter."

Another international expert on extradition said courts have in general considered political offences to be those committed as an incidental part of a broader political power struggle between a defined movement or party of which the defendant is a member, and the established government.

Snowden might be also able to fight his surrender on the grounds he would face cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment if he were returned.

But if the US provided assurances that he would not be treated in such a manner, it might be hard for Hong Kong to resist, Patricia Ho, a Hong Kong lawyer who specialises in asylum and refugee claims, told Associated Press.

The UN special rapporteur on torture has formally accused the US government of cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment towards Bradley Manning, the US soldier currently on trial for leaking classified material to WikiLeaks. But the US might well argue that Snowden's treatment in the civilian system could not be compared to military detention.

Simon Young, the director of the centre for comparative and public law at the University of Hong Kong, noted that approval for surrender can only be made if there is an assurance that the death penalty will not be used.

Young added that a request would also be trumped by asylum proceedings. If Snowden applied for resettlement to a third country - Hong Kong does not grant asylum itself - that issue would have to be settled first. A legal ruling this spring has left the territory without a mechanism for handling such claims; it could take months for a system to be introduced.

Technically, the fugitive offenders ordinance would allow Beijing to step in after Hong Kong had decided whether to surrender Snowden. But it has not used these powers in the past and to intervene publicly would cause a storm.

Diplomatic discussions behind the scenes can prove as crucial as what happens in courts. Goodwin-Gill noted that a state may not ask for a suspect's extradition if it thinks its request will be rejected.

In the long run, suggested some experts, Snowden might stand a better chance of avoiding proceedings by going to a country that does not have an extradition agreement with the US. With no criminal proceedings yet under way there is, in theory, nothing to stop him simply boarding a flight to a new destination. But given his views on constraining state power and controlling surveillance, nearby options such as China, Vietnam or Laos would be bizarre choices – even if they let him in.

Jonathan Acton-Bond, a lawyer who has dealt with high-profile extradition cases in Hong Kong, told Reuters that Snowden might also face obstacles in leaving. "In strictly legal terms he's free to go, but government bodies can always find an excuse to temporise, or stop him," he said.

1. Edward Snowden could remain in Hong Kong for years, legal experts say
2. Snowden goes to ground in Hong Kong as US vows chase